Situation Assessments
Situation Assessments
The page contains subjective situation assessments and remarks.
Before 23.8.21 the remarks have been scattered throughout different chapters. This page groups them together (The remarks as published are accessible via the github history function).
Situation Assessment June 2021
(originally published in controlling.md in the Risk Management section)
The transmission pathways are clear and suitable tools for prevention are known and available: Aerosol transmission in dry indoor air is especially risky to cause severe Covid, so that’s to prevent. Ventilation and masks help to reduce transmissions and severe disease can be prevented by well prepared immune systems. The immune system can be prepared by healthy lifestyles and possibly combined with vaccination (especially for risk groups). Additionally treatment options and the general knowledge advances fast, thanks to world wide research efforts.
Looking Ahead May 2021
(originally published 23. May 2021 in controlling.md in the Risk Management section)
Southern Hemisphere
Moderate measures are likely needed in Winter 2021 in the Southern Hemisphere since the risks groups are not vaccinated yet. E.g. capacity reduction and moving businesses to outdoors.
Northern Hemisphere
Mild measures (but no closures) such as ventilation and masks in sensible indoor environments (crowded indoor public rooms) and some restriction on indoor mass events (in indoor rooms with more than a few hundred persons) e.g. ensuring ventilation (possibly by CO2 or capacity constraints) can be necessary.
If the Summer 2021 is used to ensure adequate ventilation in sensible settings such as super markets, public transport, stairwells in residential blocks, indoor arenas and other indoor places with many people: Only very few other measures will be necessary. Coronaviruses mutate fast and may out-mutate recognition by neutralizing antibodies within a few months but they cannot out-mutate ventilation.
Well not quite. The evolution of directed flying is possible but not so fast: There are life forms which are capable of directed flying such as insects or birds. Both are multicellular organisms which in turn are a subgroup of eukaryotes. Going back the string of evolution, likely at some point one a arrives at a RNA life form similar to coronaviruses. This evolution took place during billions of years and was accompanied by many changes in way of life.
Situation in Switzerland May 2020
Subjective Remark, 1.May 2020: While not perfect, the government and the BAG in Switzerland do overall a good job. What I consider done right: A slow down of life to have people focus on the important things among those health. A temporary slow down of spread to buy some time for preparation, experience gain and research. Personally, I liked (and helped me doing this page) that there was no stay at home order. Allowing people and especially children to go outdoors is important. The longer Covid-19 spread patterns can be analyzed the more fine-grained measures can be. A gradual reopening starting in April makes sense. Room for improvement: Masks benefits indoors and that outdoors infection risk is much smaller should be clearly stated.
To rate afterthought is much easier than to be there in charge with few proven and sure knowledge. In that view in all countries, there were difficult decisions and no clear right or wrong. Most countries found their path according to their situation. But I think now it is time to ease lock-downs step by step, especially in areas where there are not many severe Covid-19 cases. Around the world it remains important, however, to support public health. Keeping some slow down can be part of that. In case of new findings and knowledge, adaption of strategies is important. Right or Wrong and Perfection anyways are often a matter of viewpoint and angle.